USD/CHF forecast

   The pair is being traded within bounds of the “a-a+” side trend. Certain further development can only be discussed in case the pare rises above level 1.1430 or falls far below 1.1170. Hence, we should consider two variants of events to develop:

 

   1. The pair rises above level 1.1430 (above higher bound of the “a-a+” side trend) reaching intermediate resistance 1.1540. Upon bounce off this resistance the support will be at 1.1400. Next, after going up above 1.1580, the pair will reach key resistance 1.1740 (“D+” trend line from daily graph, beginning from 11/21/08).

 

   2. Second variant is very unlikely to happen, however it should be mentioned anyway because possibility of lowering below level 1.1210 can not be ignored. In such case the pair will get down to a very strong key support 1.1170 formed in March. But after that the pair won’t be able to easily continue going down (read more below in daily graph forecast).

 

 

   The pair is being traded under the “flag” trend-continuing figure (solid blue trend). Lowering below this figure was supposed to develop a very strong downtrend that could empower dropping below an important key support 1.1170. But, what is observed now, cannot be called a rapid strong downtrend. This motion is more to a powerful correction then to a downtrend. That’s why the lowering below the “flag” figure is false in my point of view. Taking this to account, we should discuss two variants of events to develop (down and up):

 

   1. To speak about downtrend continuation, the pair has to confidently drop and consolidate (close a day) below key support 1.1170. And while the pair is being traded between levels 1.1430 and 1.1210, it is staying in neutral zone for the reason that at H4 graph the trend is a side one.

 

   2. The lowering below the “flag” figure proves to be false, because the pair eventually gets over level 1.1430. Owing to this, temporary resistance 1.1540 will be reached, and if the pair will be rising further, it will get to key resistance 1.1740 (“D+” trend line).

 

Weekly graph, Monthly graph